Prediction markets hit $44bn in 2026, consolidating growth
The sector starts the year breaking historic daily trading highs, driven by massive adoption that goes beyond politics and expands into sports and the economy. Polymarket and Kalshi account for nearly 90% of global activity.
Prediction markets have ceased to be an experimental niche to become a massive financial force. After closing a historic 2025 with a total market volume exceeding 44 billion dollars, the sector has begun 2026 with unprecedented strength, setting new records for daily and weekly activity.
According to the latest industry data, monthly trading volume has risen from less than 100 million dollars at the beginning of 2024 to over 13 billion in November 2025. This exponential growth shows no signs of slowing down: early in 2026, the market recorded a new single-day high of approximately 701.7 million dollars in trading volume.
A duopoly dominates the board: Polymarket and Kalshi
Despite the proliferation of new platforms, the market shows high concentration. Approximately 85-90% of the total volume comes from two main players: Polymarket and Kalshi.
- Polymarket: Remains the sector leader, registering a notional volume of around 21.5 billion dollars between January and November 2025. Its activity is diversified, with sports (39%), politics (34%), and the crypto ecosystem (18%) driving more than 90% of its operations.
- Kalshi: Follows closely with a volume of 17.1 billion dollars in the same period. Unlike its competitor, Kalshi shows a strong dependence on sporting events, which represent 85% of its notional volume.
The rest of the platforms share a smaller quota, totaling about 5.4 billion dollars combined.
The "wisdom of the crowds" outperforms experts
One of the most revealing data points in the 2026 report is the validation of these markets’ effectiveness as forecasting tools. Using the "Brier score" (a metric where a lower score indicates greater accuracy), prediction markets achieved an average of 0.09.
This level of accuracy places prediction markets above traditional methods:
- Prediction markets: 0.09.
- Weather forecasts: 0.14–0.15.
- Sports betting markets: 0.18–0.22.
- Expert forecasts: 0.20–0.25.
- Opinion polls: 0.27–0.31.
The data suggest that the pricing model, where odds adjust in real time with money at stake, is significantly more reliable than traditional polls or expert opinion.
Outlook for 2026: Sports and mass adoption
Analysts project that 2026 will be a year of stabilization and sustained growth. Jordan Bender, equity research analyst at Citizens, notes that no "headwinds" are expected to slow the industry and highlights that we are witnessing "mass adoption" in the space.
The 2026 sports calendar, which includes world-class events such as the World Cup and the Olympic Games, is shaping up as a key catalyst to maintain trading volume. Additionally, traditional betting giants like DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as financial platforms like Robinhood, are expected to try to capture a share of this lucrative market, although their initial start has been slower than anticipated.
With monthly active users growing from 4,000 in 2024 to over 600,000 by the end of 2025, prediction markets appear to have arrived to stay, transforming the way the world anticipates the future.
Tags: Predictive Markets, Kalshi, Polymarket, Draftkings, Fanduel, Robinhood