64 percent of Brazilians approve betting ban
The ban on betting is the most well-received measure of the entire package presented by the Brazilian government this year. In the first Quaest poll for the runoff election, 64 percent of respondents said they were aware of and supported the veto established by Provisional Measure No. 1,394/2026, compared to 17 percent who rejected it. This support even surpasses that for ending the six-day work week for one day of rest, which garnered 61 percent support among those aware of the proposal and 20 percent rejection.
This level of approval coexists with a close election. The same poll places Senator Flávio Bolsonaro with 46 percent of voting intentions against 44 percent for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a margin that falls within the two-point error and leaves the two technically tied. There is also 9 percent who plan to cast blank or null votes and 1 percent who declare themselves undecided, and if null and blank votes are excluded, the simulation becomes 51 to 49 in favor of Bolsonaro. The second round will be voted on October 25.
The comparison with the last survey before the first round shows steady movement. On October 3, the senator appeared 44 to 42, also ahead in numerical terms, and since then both have risen slightly while the proportion of voters who said they would cast blank votes, nullify their votes, or stay home decreased.
Felipe Nunes, who directs Quaest and teaches at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, analyzed on g1 where each candidate's growth might come from, and for the government, he located it among those who did not vote. Between abstentions and null or blank votes, 39.1 million were accumulated in the first round, a quarter of the eligible electorate, 24.8 percent, and within that universe, 43 percent say they will vote for Lula in the runoff against 38 percent who prefer Bolsonaro, so re-election largely depends on these people actually turning out.
The rest of the indicators reviewed by the analyst are moving by tenths. Among young people, fear is equally divided, 45 percent say they fear the Bolsonaro family returning to power more, and another 45 percent fear the continuity of the current government, whereas in the previous measurement, the fear of another Lula mandate weighed more heavily, a shift that the Workers' Party campaign may try to leverage in that segment. Government approval rose from 44 to 45 percent, and disapproval fell from 49 to 48, with a balance that remains negative and, according to Nunes, complicates any comeback. Among the initiatives that could help are the ban itself, the end of the six-for-one regime approved in the Senate, tax exemption on the basic food basket, annual adjustments to the minimum wage, and the package for individual micro-entrepreneurs presented this week, although a good part of the population is still unaware of several of them.
Nunes highlighted the limitation of his own data, and it is worth repeating: the survey measures how people value the measure and not whether that translates into votes, which depend on other factors. The number that matters for the industry is different and is on the calendar. If the ban has 64 percent support while the president who signed it gets 44 percent, the support is not transferring to the ballot, but it does set the political price of reversing it, because Congress has until November 23 to decide, and any deputy who votes in favor of reopening the market will do so against a measure that six out of ten surveyed approve. Added to this is the coincidence of dates: federal authorizations expire on October 25, the same day as the runoff, so the regulated Brazilian market will formally cease to exist while votes are being counted, and whoever wins will find a sector already disarmed and with public opinion that, for now, agrees with that.
Tags: Brazil, Quaest, Brazil betting ban, Brazilian elections