Brazil collects US$2.2bn in nine months just before the veto
The revenue peak arrived in the very same month that the government signed the decree halting it. The Receita Federal reported that tax revenues linked to lotteries and fixed-odds betting totaled R$11,116m (around US$2,200m) between January and September 2026, with this nine-month cumulative figure already surpassing the R$9,950m (around US$1,970m) recorded for the entire 2025 fiscal year.
The difference stands at 11.7 percent in favor of nine months compared to twelve, but the most telling figure emerges when breaking it down into monthly averages: R$1,235m per month in 2026 versus R$829m per month in 2025. Projected across twelve months, this year's pace pointed toward R$14,800m—roughly 49 percent above the previous year. That is the upward trend cut short by the provisional measure.
Before interpreting the record as a direct gauge of the betting market, a caveat highlighted by the Receita itself should be noted. The figures bundle various taxes and contributions tied to lotteries and betting, rather than solely the levy on Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR). In other words, the total combines the segment shut down by the ban with the state lottery, which continues to operate, meaning the record figures will not plummet at the same rate as the banned market.
There is also a discrepancy in the dollar-converted series worth clarifying. September closed at R$1,200m, equivalent to US$237.8m according to the publication, while August stood at R$1,160m and was converted to US$203.4m. The former implies an exchange rate close to 5.05 reais per dollar, while the latter reflects 5.70, making the monthly jump appear as 16.9 percent in dollars, whereas in reais the increase is around 3.4 percent based on the rounded amounts. Both cumulative totals—for the nine-month period and for 2025—are calculated at 5.05, meaning the only outlier is August's conversion.
Marcelo Gomide, who coordinates the agency's Forecasting and Analysis division, explained why September does not reflect the impact of the ban. "Revenues were collected normally in September because the provisional measure was enacted toward the end of the month," he noted. This aligns with details already disclosed through another channel: a report released this week based on National Treasury data pegged the sector's federal revenue at US$1,970m through the end of August; subtracting that from September's US$2,200m leaves around US$230m for the month, very close to the US$237.8m published by the Receita. Two distinct sources converge on the same order of magnitude.
What lies ahead is the first full month without a regulated market. Provisional Measure 1,394/2026, published on September 25, struck down the offering, operation, and advertising promotion of licensed online gaming and sports betting, and its fiscal impact will only become visible once subsequent full periods are published. The National Congress has 120 days to review the measure before it lapses, while it simultaneously faces legal challenges before the Supremo Tribunal Federal, meaning October's data will arrive while the fate of the regulation behind it remains undecided.
The Receita Federal is the tax administration authority of the Brazilian federal government and publishes monthly revenue figures broken down by sector. Brazil's regulated fixed-odds betting and online casino market began operating in 2025 under the oversight of the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets of the Ministry of Finance, featuring a framework that combined a tax on Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR), general federal taxes, and regulatory inspection fees, before being shut down in September 2026 by Provisional Measure 1,394/2026.
Tags: Brasil, Receita Federal, tax collection, ban