Brazil's regulated betting: 1 year, strong revenue, structural
Twelve months after the regulated online betting market came into effect, Brazil closed its first cycle with figures that confirm the size of the business, but also with warning signs about its medium-term sustainability. Between January and November 2025, the State collected nearly R$ 9 billion, about US$ 1.7 billion, while more than 80 operators obtained authorization to operate legally.
The fiscal volume generated quickly positioned the country as one of the most relevant regulated markets in the region. However, behind that initial growth coexist regulatory tensions, tax pressure, and an illegal market that continues to capture a significant part of the demand.
A market that was born large, but under strong pressure
The regulation allowed for organizing an activity that already existed on a large scale, but it did not eliminate the original imbalances. For the National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL), the first year was key to building institutional capacity, although it was marked by ongoing debates with political power.
From the private sector, it is highlighted that much of the initial effort was aimed at defending the economic viability of the model, against initiatives that sought to increase taxes or impose restrictions without impact analysis. The result was an active legal market, but operating under growing fiscal pressure from its inception.
Rising taxes and rules still in flux
One of the factors generating the most uncertainty going forward is the evolution of the tax scheme. The approved calendar foresees a progressive increase of the levy on GGR, which will reach 15 percent in 2028, while in parallel a bill is advancing in Congress to apply an additional 15 percent tax on player deposits.
Added to this are pending changes regarding advertising, sponsorships, and commercial communication, whose implementation dates have not yet been defined. For many operators, the combination of rules under permanent review and higher tax burdens complicates investment planning in the country.
The illegal market, far from receding
Despite the regulation, the unauthorized circuit continues to have a structural weight. Various estimates place the illegal market between 41 and 51 percent of the total bets placed in Brazil, a proportion that calls into question the effectiveness of some restrictive measures.
The potential impact became evident after the prohibition of betting for beneficiaries of social programs. A study released at the end of 2025 showed that almost half of those users would migrate to illegal platforms, rather than abandoning the activity, which reopened the debate on public policies based more on restrictions than on effective control.
Payments and banking, the most sensitive point of control
In this scenario, one of the most forceful actions of the year was the ban on banks and payment providers from operating with unauthorized sites, established through Normative Ordinance 566. The measure directly targeted the financial core of the clandestine market, limiting its operational capacity.
From the regulated industry’s perspective, control of payment methods is today the most effective tool against illegality, especially in an environment where unlicensed operators quickly adapt to technological blocks and regulatory changes.
A second year that will define the course
Brazil enters 2026 with a market that has already demonstrated its revenue potential, but faces key decisions. The challenge is not only to collect more, but to keep the legal ecosystem competitive, reduce incentives to operate outside the system, and offer stable rules that allow long-term investments.
The first year left compelling numbers. The second will determine whether the Brazilian model manages to consolidate or if fiscal and regulatory pressure paradoxically ends up strengthening the market it sought to eradicate.
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