The betting market in Brazil reaches USD 9.8 billion
A new report from H2 Gambling Capital reveals that almost 30% of activity still occurs on unauthorized platforms. Although only 3% of bettors prefer illegal sites, the difficulty in identifying licensed operators remains the main barrier to the full channeling of the market.
The South American giant already has an official figure for its gaming industry: USD 9.8 billion (approx. R$ 53 billion) in annual Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR). However, behind the impressive figure lies a complex reality: approximately USD 2.79 billion still moves in the unregulated market, according to data presented by the consultancy H2 Gambling Capital at ICE Barcelona.
Ed Birkin, CEO of the consultancy, explained that the licensed segment currently generates about USD 7 billion, but the formal system still competes against an underground structure that manages to capture almost a third of the total betting volume.
The Bettor Profile: Concern vs. Lack of Knowledge
The study included a survey of 3,500 Brazilian players that revealed insightful conclusions about why the illegal market persists:
- Intention to Play Safely: 60% of users state that they are concerned about playing only on authorized sites.
- Information Gap: 30% of respondents admitted not knowing how to verify if a platform has a valid license in Brazil.
- The "Offshore" Paradox: Only a residual 3% expressed an explicit preference for illegal sites. This suggests that fund diversion is not a deliberate choice by the user, but a consequence of the lack of clear signaling by the State and operators.
How Was the Illegal Market Calculated?
To obtain an accurate figure in an opaque environment, H2 Gambling Capital crossed three critical variables:
- Direct Surveys: Where players admit that 21% of their spending occurs outside the system.
- Central Bank Data: The analysis of transactions via Pix shows that 30% of payments go to unlicensed domains.
- Traffic Metrics: Internet flow analysis confirmed the volume of activity on unregulated sites.
The Challenge of Channeling
For experts, the success of Brazilian regulation in the coming years will not depend solely on oversight, but on the ability of legal operators to differentiate themselves. As long as 20% of users prioritize aggressive bonuses over legal status, the illegal market will have a window of opportunity.
As analyzed in other panels of Casa Brasil during this week, tools like the new SPA Virtual Laboratory will be key to reducing this "grey" market and achieving the channeling goal of 50% by the end of the decade.
Tags: Brasil, Brazil betting volume, Brazil 2025 betting