Kalshi & XP Intl. alliance: prediction markets for Brazilian investors
The US platform Kalshi has formalized a strategic agreement with XP International that promises to redefine access to prediction markets in the South American giant. This collaboration will allow clients of Clear, XP's renowned brokerage firm, to trade event contracts through their international investment accounts. This is a significant milestone, as it is the first time a Brazilian financial institution has integrated this type of derivative instrument, based on real-world outcomes, into a global investment portfolio.
Prediction markets function as mechanisms where contract prices fluctuate in real time according to participants' expectations about economic indicators or financial data. Although marketed as sophisticated financial services, the line between them and betting exchanges is often blurred. In fact, prominent industry figures like Jason Trost, CEO of Smarkets, have pointed out that both modalities are practically the same, which has put these platforms under the scrutiny of international regulators who question whether it is investment or simply a new form of gambling.
A Global Controversy and Ethical Challenges
Kalshi's expansion into the Southern Hemisphere comes at a time of intense scrutiny for the sector. Both Kalshi and its competitor Polymarket have faced blocks in jurisdictions such as New Zealand, while in the Netherlands, they have been ordered to cease operations for being considered illegal gambling services. The controversy is not limited to legal classification but also reaches ethical dimensions due to the offering of markets on armed conflicts in the Middle East or military actions in Venezuela, which has provoked a political reaction in the United States Senate.
In the US Congress, bills have been introduced to prohibit government officials from operating on these platforms and to restrict contracts linked to sensitive topics such as terrorism, assassinations, or wars. Despite this tense climate, Kalshi continues to diversify its offerings with markets ranging from the winner of the 2026 World Cup to more eccentric events, such as the official confirmation of extraterrestrial life. In Brazil, the firm seeks to capitalize on its status as a CFTC-regulated entity in the US to position itself as a legitimate and transparent asset class.
The Regulatory Landscape in Lula da Silva's Brazil
Kalshi's arrival occurs in a Brazilian political scenario particularly hostile to the gambling sector. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has maintained a critical stance, especially after it became known that the industry generated approximately R$37 billion in gross revenue during 2025. Although platforms like B3 have already ventured into prediction markets under the wing of the Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM), there is still no specific regulatory framework for these instruments, which leaves open the question of whether they will face obstacles similar to those of online casinos and the controversial "jogo do tigrinho" (tiger game).
From XP Inc., the vision is more optimistic and focuses on democratizing access to scenario analysis tools and portfolio protection. Kalshi's initial offering in Brazil will focus on contracts linked to financial and economic events, with a gradual rollout that will prioritize investor education and governance. For Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder of Kalshi and of Brazilian origin, this step is fundamental to offering fair and secure markets to a global audience seeking investment alternatives outside traditional channels.
Tags: Kalshi, XP International, Brazil prediction markets