Prediction markets project $1 trillion by 2030
Prediction markets are projected to reach a volume of USD 1 trillion by 2030, according to analysis by Bloomberg Intelligence. This projection is based on the accelerated growth of platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, which have mobilized USD 300 billion in traded volume during 2026, compared to an estimated USD 51 billion for 2025. However, this exponential growth is occurring simultaneously with a regulatory offensive in Latin America that questions the legal classification of these instruments.
Regulatory uncertainty in the region centers on a fundamental question: are prediction markets derivative market instruments or do they function as regulated online sports betting? This classification determines competent authorities, licensing requirements, and applicable taxation. In Colombia, Coljuegos requested internet providers to block Polymarket. In Brazil, the government intervened both platforms in April 2026, considering that they offered products functionally similar to sports betting, also blocking 27 related platforms.
Argentina moved forward with its own regulatory response. The Lottery of the City of Buenos Aires (LOTBA) promoted an investigation that concluded that Polymarket presents functional similarities with betting modalities already regulated under local supervision. Argentine authorities implemented blockades, review of payment methods, digital monitoring, and supervision of unauthorized operators. Mexico maintains a less confrontational but no less concerned approach: Miguel Ángel Ochoa, president of AIEJA, concluded that prediction platforms would require authorization to operate legally in the country.
Polymarket has presented its position to regulators, arguing that it offers peer-to-peer event contracts, distinct from the operations of sportsbooks. The platform expressed willingness to collaborate with jurisdictions to promote responsible innovation, but Latin American regulatory responses indicate that this argument is not sufficient given national legislations that already broadly cover prediction markets under betting categories.
In Latin America, the case of prediction markets illustrates a central regulatory challenge of the next decade: financial and technological innovations that replicate characteristics of regulated products under different nomenclature create temporary legal vacuums and force authorities to choose between rapid prohibition or agile regulation. The internationally observed trend, according to André Gelfi of the Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gambling, is not to prohibit innovation but to seek regulatory coherence. For the region, this means developing frameworks that recognize the activity under existing categories while building specific standards for new modalities.
Tags: LatAm prediction markets, Polymarket Kalshi, Financial regulation in Latin America, Crypto betting