Report analyzes the first year of the regulated market in Brazil
SBC Media published the independent report Brazil Betting Outlook 2026: One Year into Regulation, which analyzes the first year of the regulated online betting market in Brazil and reviews the main challenges and perceptions of the industry. The document, prepared with the participation of 56 executives including operators, regulators, suppliers, lawyers, and independent experts, addresses how to balance consumer protection with commercial viability in a regulatory environment that the actors themselves describe as unstable, based on voices gathered during and after SBC Summit Rio 2026.
One of the central findings is that 65.3 percent of respondents identified the tax model as the biggest operational challenge in the market, far ahead of advertising rules, at 20.4 percent, and licensing and regulatory compliance, at 6.1 percent each. This data gains relevance after the increase in the tax rate on gross gaming revenue to 18 percent until 2028, a measure that generated uncertainty among operators and, according to the experts consulted, reflects that the Government may not be respecting the adaptation period of a market with less than two years of regulated activity. Regarding confidence, only 13.7 percent declared themselves very confident in the Brazilian regulatory framework and 43.1 percent somewhat confident, while 46.8 percent pointed to regulatory clarity as the most important factor for the future success of the market, above local knowledge, brand differentiation, and the execution of responsible gambling policies.
The report also highlights concerns about advertising restrictions, as almost half of respondents, 48.9 percent, believe that current limitations represent a significant obstacle to long-term growth, after months of political debate about the role of athletes, celebrities, and influencers in betting advertising. Regarding customer acquisition, the landscape appears fragmented, with affiliates as the main channel, at 26.1 percent, followed by paid digital media, content and media, and integration with retail, at 19.6 percent each, pointing to a diversified approach.
Despite the pressures, respondents remain moderately optimistic, with an average score of 3.26 out of 5, and 68.2 percent believe that Brazil will reach market maturity within two to five years. Even so, 71.7 percent of operators are still in the expansion phase, with half describing their strategy as cautious expansion compared to 21.7 percent who are opting for aggressive growth. With this data, the report focuses on regulatory clarity and fiscal stability as determining factors for the development of the Brazilian market in a key year, with presidential, state, and legislative elections on the horizon, and is available for free download in English and Portuguese.
Tags: SBC Media, Brazil Betting Outlook 2026, Brazil regulated market, taxation model