AGA: Prediction markets are sports betting, harming regulated sector
American Gaming Association President and CEO, Bill Miller, testified before the U.S. Senate to warn about the rapid advancement of sports prediction markets and their impact on the regulated structure built after the repeal of PASPA. The message was clear: these products operate as national sportsbooks outside the perimeter of state and tribal licenses.
The hearing, organized by the Senate Commerce Committee's Subcommittee on Consumer Protection, Technology, and Data Privacy, was titled "No Sure Bets: Protecting Sports Integrity in America." Miller argued that prediction operators are repackaging sports betting as financial products to circumvent state laws, responsible gambling obligations, and tribal regulatory frameworks.
The Kalshi Case and the Real Business Volume
The presented figures demonstrate the magnitude of the phenomenon. Sports betting now accounts for nearly 86 percent of Kalshi's commercial activity, compared to insignificant levels just two years ago. In 2024, the volume linked to sports on that platform was only $227,000. So far in 2026, it has exceeded $47 billion in transaction volume, according to data shared by the AGA.
For Miller, this jump is not marginal. He described it as a direct threat to the system deployed by 39 states and the District of Columbia since the Supreme Court's 2018 decision. The current framework is built on licenses, geolocation, responsible gambling, anti-money laundering, and integrity monitoring. Prediction markets operate outside this framework, under federal supervision by the CFTC, and bypass all these layers.
Tribal Sovereignty, Minimum Age, and Advertising
The testimony dedicated a central chapter to tribal sovereignty. Miller recalled that tribal gaming generated over $16 billion in 2025 for health, education, infrastructure, and public services, and warned that markets regulated by a federal agency could undermine decades-old compacts under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act.
The AGA also focused on the minimum age. While legal sports betting requires 21 years of age in most states, prediction platforms allow participation from 18. Added to this is advertising pressure: almost half of the digital impressions in the U.S. sports betting segment now come from prediction operators, without being subject to the responsible advertising standards applicable to licensed sportsbooks.
The closing came with a worrying projection. Miller emphasized that more than 90 percent of the volume in prediction markets is sports-related and suggested that a case of match-fixing in that environment is only a matter of time. The AGA urged Congress to strengthen state authority over betting, pursue offshore operators, and advance legislation such as the Sports Bets Are Sports Bets bill by Senators Schiff and Curtis.
The U.S. debate has a direct impact on Latin America. Brazil has already banned unlicensed predictive market platforms, and regulators in Argentina, Colombia, Peru, and Mexico are closely following the discussion on how to frame Polymarket, Kalshi, and similar platforms within local fixed-odds legislation and problem gambling prevention.
Tags: United States, AGA, LatAm prediction markets, US sports betting, Kalshi