AGA's Gaming Industry Outlook: Growth and Confidence
The regulated gambling industry in the United States is experiencing a period of remarkable resilience and expansion, according to the latest edition of the Gaming Industry Outlook report prepared by the American Gaming Association (AGA). The study highlights a scenario of strong business confidence, supported by a 1.5 percent year-over-year growth in the Gaming Conditions Index (GCI), an indicator that synthesizes real economic activity through critical variables such as revenue, employment, and wage levels. This positive trend is reflected in the perception of industry executives, who show a net favorable outlook of 21.4 percent regarding the future conditions of their businesses.
Approximately six out of ten surveyed executives anticipate an increase in capital investments and a substantial improvement in their financial balances for the next six months. Instead of betting on greater investment in promotional activities, which have shown a reduction for the second consecutive period, companies are directing their resources towards infrastructure improvement and operational expansion. Bill Miller, president and CEO of the AGA, noted that the state and tribally regulated legal sector continues to demonstrate a great capacity for adaptation and technological innovation in an economic environment that remains dynamic and demanding.
Prediction Contracts as Operators' Main Concern
Despite economic growth, the report reveals increasing tension due to the rise of predictive market platforms offering contracts linked to sports outcomes. For 81 percent of the surveyed executives, this modality represents a very significant threat to the integrity and stability of the legal gambling industry. The sector perceives that these products operate in a gray area that directly competes with regulated operators, affecting the traceability of bets and challenging the supervisory frameworks established by state jurisdictions.
The association emphasizes that these new forms of sports betting, often presented under the scheme of futures markets or financial predictions on sports events, are gaining ground at the expense of companies that comply with strict tax and compliance regulations. The defense of sports integrity and the regulated sector has become an absolute priority for traditional companies, which see these competitors as a source of regulatory friction that could alter the betting ecosystem in the coming years.
Operating Costs and the New Competitive Landscape
The analysis, developed by Oxford Economics between March and April 2026, also identifies structural pressures affecting company profitability. 54 percent of executives indicated that the biggest pressure factor on their operating costs is wage increases, closely followed by uncertainty in federal tax policies. Additionally, geopolitical risks and inflation continue to be variables that executives monitor cautiously to avoid compromising long-term investment plans.
A revealing finding of the report is the notable jump in concern about the emergence of new competitors. While in the third quarter of 2025 only 25 percent of respondents saw new competition as a major risk, that figure has soared to 42 percent in the current survey. This evolution in the competitive landscape, coupled with the regulatory challenges of prediction markets, forces American and international companies to rethink their user acquisition and retention strategies in an increasingly sophisticated market.
Tags: United States, USA, prediction markets, AGA, Gaming Industry Outlook 2026