Polymarket opens OpenAI, SpaceX prediction markets with Nasdaq
Polymarket made a significant leap in its product strategy and entered the private company segment. The prediction markets platform announced an agreement with Nasdaq Private Market to launch new markets linked to the universe of unlisted companies, with an initial focus on OpenAI and SpaceX. This move expands its offering beyond traditional sports and political betting products and places it in a new category of competition.
The catalog starts with contracts on valuation milestones, IPO dates, and secondary market activity for shares. Among the initial markets is a key bet: whether OpenAI will exceed a trillion-dollar valuation by the end of 2026. The list also includes Anthropic, Anduril, SpaceX, Stripe, Kraken, and Databricks, all significant names in the global landscape of artificial intelligence, defense, and fintech.
Operation and Resolution
The contracts do not grant actual stakes in the companies. They function as event-based bets, whose results are determined exclusively by data provided by Nasdaq Private Market. Polymarket itself highlighted that this mechanism gives it access to financial information that was previously reserved for venture capital firms, institutions, and accredited investors.
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan presented the launch as a democratization movement. The platform positions itself as a tool that makes one of the last closed segments of the financial system accessible to retail investors. Tom Callahan, CEO of Nasdaq Private Market, complemented the idea by describing the product as a potential real-time signal for institutional investors, capable of providing faster sentiment indicators in private markets where valuations are updated infrequently.
A Move Amidst Regulatory Scrutiny
The launch occurs at a delicate time for prediction market operators. Regulatory pressure is increasing with the growth of the segment and specific cases that have exposed its vulnerabilities. In April, U.S. prosecutors indicted a soldier for using Polymarket for bets linked to a Venezuelan operation that allegedly generated over $400,000 in profits. Polymarket responded with a real-time monitoring layer and alliances with technology specialists to detect manipulation.
Geographical access remains limited. Private company products are only available on Polymarket's international platform, blocked for users in the United States and the United Kingdom, although some traffic enters through virtual private networks. The international site does not require identity verification and accepts anonymous cryptocurrency payments, which has opened a new front for discussion with authorities in various jurisdictions.
Polymarket's move is part of a broader redefinition of the prediction segment, which is also beginning to target institutional investors. The pressure on Kalshi, the AGA's proposals in the U.S. Senate, and the advancement of specific regulations in Brazil and Europe show that the boundary between betting and financial product will continue to be a matter of litigation. For Latin America, the case raises the question of how to legally frame products that combine financial data, event contracts, and global platforms without a local license.
Tags: United States, Polymarket, LatAm prediction markets, Nasdaq, OpenAI