Alea warns Mercado Libre for promoting prediction betting
The Association of Lotteries, Pools, and State Casinos of Argentina (ALEA) has filed a formal complaint against Mercado Libre for operating forecasting functionalities within its Mercado Pago application, specifically a feature that allows users to estimate results for the 2026 World Cup matches. This action reflects growing friction between traditional Argentine lottery operators and technology platforms that are expanding gambling services without explicit compliance with provincial regulators.
ALEA argued that Mercado Libre lacks specific authorization to operate betting services, including prediction markets on global sporting events. From ALEA's perspective, Mercado Pago's functionality constitutes the operation of unlicensed gambling products, a situation that violates the Argentine regulatory framework where provinces retain authority over betting and lotteries. The complaint was filed with the body that has jurisdiction over competition and unfair commercial practices.
The timing of the complaint is strategic: during the World Cup, prediction and betting volumes on digital platforms reach historical highs. Mercado Libre, as the platform with the highest user penetration in Argentina, has the capacity to capture a significant proportion of forecasting activity that would otherwise flow to authorized lottery operators. ALEA interpreted this situation as a direct threat to provincial lottery revenues during a period of maximum demand.
Mercado Libre had not publicly responded to the complaint at the time of this publication, but historically the company has maintained that prediction functionalities do not constitute the operation of traditional gambling services but rather entertainment based on social participation. This argument has gained traction in some jurisdictions where regulators have differentiated between real-money betting and predictions based on points or secondary, non-directly financial prizes.
The conflict between ALEA and Mercado Libre is symptomatic of a broader tension in Latin America: while governments and regulators formalize frameworks for authorized lottery operators, global technology platforms are advancing with similar products but under a different nomenclature. Argentina, along with Brazil and Chile, has designated this as a priority regulatory issue for 2026. The outcome of ALEA's complaint will likely set a precedent on whether Latin American governments can regulate technology platforms that offer services analogous to betting without holding traditional licenses.
Tags: Argentina, Mercado Libre, regulation predictions, ALEA, LatAm lotteries, Mercado Pago