IBJR warns: regulate prediction markets like traditional betting
The Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gambling (IBJR) has expressed its concern regarding the advancement of so-called prediction markets in the country. Through an official statement, the entity argues that any activity where the user assumes a financial risk linked to the uncertain outcome of an event, whether sports, political, or economic, must be technically classified as a bet. According to the institute, the use of sophisticated terminology or new technologies does not eliminate the legal risk or the economic exposure of participants, and therefore these platforms must be subject to the same existing regulatory regime.
The technical analysis by the IBJR indicates that these markets operate through the buying and selling of contracts whose value fluctuates according to future results. This structure, in practice, replicates the mechanics of fixed-odds betting. The institute warns that allowing these models to operate outside the law creates a scenario of regulatory arbitrage, leading to unfair competition, reduced tax collection, and a dangerous weakening of consumer protection and sports integrity policies.
International precedents and the Brazilian legal framework
To support its position, the IBJR cites examples from jurisdictions with mature markets. In the United Kingdom, the UK Gambling Commission already classifies these products as gambling, requiring specific licenses. In the United States, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) supervises platforms like Kalshi and PredictIt under strict rules that limit the volume of operations to mitigate risks.
Domestically, Brazil already has Law nº 14.790/2023, which establishes clear requirements for licensing, taxation, and responsible gambling measures. The institute argues that no exceptions should be made for prediction markets, as this would set a precedent that would compromise the security of the betting ecosystem that the country seeks to consolidate.
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