Kalshi co-founder: Brazil, next big market for prediction platforms
Kalshi is considering a possible expansion into Brazil in 2026. This was confirmed by its co-founder, Luana Lopes Lara, in an interview with the economic media outlet Valor, where she highlighted the company’s strategic interest in the Latin American market.
Headquartered in New York, Kalshi has become one of the most disruptive players of 2025 by popularizing prediction contracts linked to political, economic, and sports events. However, its rapid growth has not been without controversy. In the United States, various state regulators question whether the offering of sports contracts effectively serves as an indirect way to circumvent traditional betting regulations.
Despite this context, Kalshi’s model has attracted the interest of major North American betting operators. Both DraftKings and FanDuel recently launched prediction market products, in both cases through partnerships with CME Group, which reinforces the growing relevance of this type of platform.
Regarding its international expansion, Lopes Lara, of Brazilian origin, stated that Brazil holds a priority place in the company’s plans. After completing its third round of funding this year, which valued Kalshi at around US$11 billion, the company began outlining its overseas expansion.
According to the executive, the project is still in an exploratory stage. Kalshi is analyzing how to adapt its model to the Brazilian regulatory reality, with the expectation of making a concrete announcement at the beginning of 2026.
Brazil represents an attractive but complex scenario. The country launched its regulated online betting market in 2025, although there is currently no specific framework for prediction markets. So far, neither the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (Secretaria de Premios y Apuestas) nor the Brazilian Securities Commission has formally commented on this type of product.
Kalshi’s experience in the United States suggests that the path will not be easy. The platform faces litigation in several states, including Connecticut and Nevada, where regulators argue that its contracts constitute illegal sports betting. Kalshi, for its part, defends that it operates as a federally regulated market under the supervision of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and that it should not be subject to state gambling laws.
In the Brazilian case, the challenge could be even greater. The local regulator has intensified controls over the financial security of the sector, and the government is moving forward with an increase in the tax burden on betting operators. In this context, a product that potentially falls outside the traditional fiscal and regulatory scheme could face strong institutional resistance.
Still, Kalshi’s interest in Brazil confirms that prediction markets are gaining weight within the global gaming and finance ecosystem. If the company manages to overcome the legal obstacles, its arrival could open a new front of regulatory debate in one of the most dynamic markets in the region.
Tags: Brazil, Kalshi Brasil, Kalshi Bets, Kalshi