Study estimates 62.5 billion transferred to betting
Brazilian families allocated approximately BRL 62.5 billion more to fixed-odds betting operators via Pix than they received back in 2025, according to an estimate from the third edition of the Brazilian States' Fiscal Bulletin. The results were initially reported by the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo on August 6, and the study was prepared by the National Committee of Secretaries of Finance, Revenue, or Taxation of the States and the Federal District, known as Comsefaz, in collaboration with the Celso Furtado International Center for Development Policies, using data from the Central Bank and payment statistics by economic activity.
This amount represents the net transfer attributable to sportsbooks, meaning the difference between payments made by individuals and the amounts returned by companies. It is equivalent to approximately 0.68 percent of the gross national disposable income of households in 2025. Between October 2024 and March 2026, the average monthly net transfer attributable to the platforms was calculated at BRL 4.7 billion, based on Pix flows classified by the Central Bank as belonging to the art, culture, sports, and recreation sector.
To separate the growth linked to betting from a possible general expansion in Pix usage, researchers constructed a counterfactual scenario using a statistical time series model. This model projected how transfers to the sector would have evolved if the observed change from the second half of 2024 had not occurred. The difference between this projected trajectory and the actual recorded values was considered the volume attributable to betting sites, with an estimated additional monthly average of BRL 24.1 billion between October 2024 and March 2026, and a cumulative impact of BRL 350.97 billion if only 2025 is considered. The study specified that monthly transactions in the sector increased from approximately BRL 5 billion to over BRL 25 billion in a few months, with a peak near BRL 42 billion in mid-2025, and clarified that the method provides an estimate of the order of magnitude rather than an exact causal measurement.
The report also noted a slowdown in transactions after the ban on betting for Bolsa Família beneficiaries, the income transfer program, implemented in October 2025. In their view, this indicates that this group engaged in a significant amount of betting, with an effect that could reduce the number of operator users by up to 20 percent. In its coverage, Folha de S.Paulo compared the BRL 62.5 billion estimate with the BRL 36.9 billion in revenue recorded by the Ministry of Finance from authorized operators during 2025. This difference of BRL 25.6 billion, the newspaper recalled, is approximately 41 percent and aligns with an LCA study commissioned by the Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gambling, which had estimated that the illegal market accounts for between 41 and 51 percent of the total.
Tags: Brazilian States Tax Bulletin, Comsefaz, net transfer to betting, Bolsa Família