Matchbook pioneers prediction markets in the United Kingdom
Matchbook is preparing to launch a new prediction markets platform in the United Kingdom in January, representing a key strategic step for the betting exchange house, which aims to position itself against U.S. players such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
The company's interim CEO, Ronan McDonagh, explained in statements to Bloomberg that the launch in the British market will serve as a full-scale test of their technology, while Matchbook awaits regulatory approval to operate in the United States, tentatively scheduled for March. The company is registered in Guernsey and has as its majority shareholder the renowned professional bettor Zeljko Ranogajec, following the reduction of the stake held by Brentford FC owner Matthew Benham.
An American-style prediction model
The United Kingdom, with a long tradition of legal and regulated betting, offers Matchbook an ideal environment to assess whether the growing interest in prediction markets in the United States can be replicated in Europe. Although the company already operates as a betting exchange, the new product will present contracts in the form of percentage probabilities with Yes or No options, instead of the traditional fractional odds used in the British market. The format replicates the approach adopted by U.S. prediction platforms.
Unlike traditional bookmakers, exchanges connect buyers and sellers directly without taking the opposite side of the bet. According to McDonagh, the new interface aims to simplify the experience for the local user. “It should be easier to understand. We trust it will spark the interest of a new audience or at least encourage exploration of the product,” he noted.
The platform will be launched under the exchange license already granted by the UK Gambling Commission, initially focusing on sporting events. Additionally, Matchbook will develop a white-label prediction market for easyBet, a brand linked to the group of easyJet founder Stelios Haji-Ioannou.
Global boost for prediction markets
The growth of platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket accelerated especially during the 2024 U.S. election cycle. Their classification as federally regulated financial markets allows them to offer contracts on events across the country without depending on the state-level regulatory fragmentation typical of betting. These markets trade political, sports, entertainment, and macroeconomic event outcomes.
In the United Kingdom, these types of products fall under gambling regulation, which is why neither Kalshi nor Polymarket currently operate in that market. Polymarket, meanwhile, recently relaunched its official operation in the United States.
Focus on the United States
With less brand recognition in the United States compared to more recent competitors, Matchbook does not rule out strategic alliances for its entry into that country. “We are not tied to the idea of entering only as Matchbook. We have a solid technological platform, liquidity providers, experience, and a competitive product from day one,” McDonagh stated.
Meanwhile, Robinhood has also expressed interest in expanding prediction markets outside the United States and is in talks with the UK Financial Conduct Authority.
In the last two years, the U.S. prediction market ecosystem has expanded with new players such as PrizePicks, Underdog, Novig, and Truth Predict, linked to former President Donald Trump. In early December, Fanatics launched its own platform in ten states. Traditional bookmakers are also watching the segment closely; DraftKings is advancing the development of DraftKings Predictions after obtaining regulatory approvals, while FanDuel is working with CME Group on a joint initiative for event-based contracts.
Tags: United Kingdom, UK, UK Predictive Markets, predictive market operators, PrizePicks, Underdog, Novig, Kalshi, PolyMarket, Truth Predict