Prediction markets challenge the dominance of traditional bookmakers
A recent study by Truist Securities has revealed a disruptive trend in the consumption of gambling and financial products in the region. Users of prediction markets show an exceptionally high level of engagement, to the extent that 61% of respondents claim to dedicate more time to these platforms than to conventional sportsbooks. This change in behavior occurs even when there is latent distrust, as 60% of participants frequently suspect the existence of insider information within the traded contracts.
The loyalty of the user base seems to be based on a perception of personal success, given that 54% of those surveyed claim to win more frequently in these markets than in traditional sportsbooks. This statistic is fundamental to understanding why 53% of respondents prefer these sites, arguing that they feel more skill-based than purely chance-based.
The factor of distrust and market integrity
Despite the growth in participation, the report highlights that manipulation and the use of non-public information are the main barriers to even more massive adoption. Around 71% of users admitted to having avoided entering a specific market for fear that the outcome was influenced by third parties with access to privileged data.
The level of concern is distributed as follows among regular participants:
- Extremely concerned: 21%
- Somewhat concerned: 40%
- Little to not concerned: 18%
For platforms, this distrust represents a critical opportunity for improvement. In fact, the implementation of measures against insider trading is the third most cited priority by users to increase their betting volume, only behind optimizing the mobile experience and diversifying event categories.
User profile and convergence with investments
The Truist Securities study, conducted on a base of 482 active users, draws a very specific demographic profile. Most participants are in the age ranges of 30 to 39 years (36%) and 40 to 49 years (31%), with higher education levels and middle to high incomes. Almost 57% of respondents hold a university degree or higher.
A revealing fact for the iGaming industry is how these users conceptualize the activity. Although 25% see it merely as entertainment, an equal percentage considers it a complement to their investment portfolio, and 20% view it as a legitimate alternative asset class. Only 17% describe the activity as speculative betting under an intellectual veneer.
Competition for user attention is intensifying. While traditional sportsbooks like DraftKings lead in massive use, platforms focused purely on prediction like Kalshi already surpass them in perceived product quality (16.6% compared to FanDuel's 15.2%). If these new players manage to resolve the frictions of their mobile interfaces and guarantee greater transparency against fraud, the displacement of capital from sports to political and economic events could be irreversible.
Tags: United States, USA, prediction markets, Polymarket, Kalshi, Truist Securities