Brazilian veto would cut USD 3.58bn in legal transfers
The cost of the Brazilian ban is beginning to take shape in concrete numbers, and they are not found in the general budget, but in the allocations that the betting law itself had earmarked for specific purposes. An analysis by BNLData, based on National Treasury data obtained through the Access to Information Law, estimates that the shutdown of the regulated market will leave up to USD 3.58 billion untransferred—funds that were destined for federal funds and public agencies before December 2029, when the licenses granted to operators would have expired.
The starting point for the calculation is what the system had already delivered: USD 1.32 billion in contributions to statutory beneficiaries during the initial 17 months of active collection. Based on this, the report outlines two scenarios for the period spanning October 2026 to December 2029. If the average pace were maintained, the loss would reach USD 3.2 billion; factoring in the tax rates set for 2027 and 2028, that figure climbs to USD 3.58 billion.
It is worth examining where the baseline scenario comes from, as it is not the historical average. The USD 1.32 billion over 17 months equates to approximately USD 77.6 million per month, and 39 months at that pace would yield around USD 3.03 billion. The USD 3.2 billion projection, by contrast, reflects the pace of the first half of 2026, when operators generated USD 493 million in net revenue earmarked for statutory distribution—roughly USD 82 million per month. The report's conservative scenario is calibrated against the market's most recent momentum rather than its historical average, and that choice is what lends credibility to the lower end of the estimate.
The distribution of these funds explains why the impact is not confined to the Ministry of Finance. During that same first half of 2026, sports received USD 85 million and public safety USD 68 million, including transfers to the Federal Police and the National Public Security Fund—accounting for 17% and 14% of the net revenue distributed during the period, respectively. Tourism is also among the earmarked recipients. The National Public Security Fund, meanwhile, had received USD 100 million from the sector in 2025, meaning that the 2026 downturn was already beginning to show before the ban.
The estimate is deliberately narrow, and that context is essential for interpreting it. It accounts only for the sums distributed among the statutory beneficiaries established by the betting legislation; it excludes all other federal taxes paid by operators, as well as personal income tax on bettors' winnings. It also excludes any market expansion leading up to 2029, as well as regulatory inspection fees. These are, in the report's own words, projections built on an already verified pace rather than an exhaustive calculation of the fiscal impact. They should therefore be viewed as a floor for the cost, rather than its full measure.
What is left out is larger than what is included. In 2025, sportsbooks paid USD 1.98 billion in federal taxes to the Federal Revenue Service, including IRPJ, CSLL, PIS/Cofins, and social security contributions. After eight months of 2026, that figure had already reached USD 1.97 billion, up 69.25% compared to the same period the previous year. At that pace, 2026 was on track to close at nearly USD 2.95 billion in federal taxes alone, almost 50% above 2025. Set alongside the USD 3.58 billion in earmarked transfers, the magnitude of the overall fiscal picture becomes clear: the designated budget allocations are merely the visible and smaller fraction of what the ban disrupts.
BNLData is a Brazilian consultancy specializing in betting market data, producing reports based on official records and public access to information requests. The Brazilian regulated fixed-odds betting and online casino market began operating in 2025 under the Betting Law and the supervision of the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets, and was shut down by Provisional Measure 1,394/2026, dated September 25, 2026, holding authorizations that extended through December 2029.
Tags: Brasil, BNLData, ban, tax collection