Centrão bets on easing the ban after the runoff
The parliamentary bloc that defines majorities in Brazil already has a plan for the provisional measure that prohibited betting. Members of the Centrão intend to modify the rule signed by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the National Congress, and the strategy, as published by Folha de S.Paulo, consists of resuming negotiations after the second presidential round on October 25. The proposal circulating is the same one that has been gaining ground: keeping online casino prohibited and re-enabling sports betting.
The actors behind the move have been identified. Parliamentarians with access to bookmakers are involved, as are the Brazilian Football Confederation and the clubs, who sought an alternative to the complete market shutdown after suddenly losing their main sponsors.
The group's electoral calculation is explicit. A victory for Flávio Bolsonaro appears to be the most favorable scenario, because the candidate criticized the prohibition and supports betting tied to sporting events, although he publicly defended the restriction on online casinos. Even so, parliamentarians believe there would be room to negotiate a relaxation even with Lula re-elected, and they plan to rely on the consequences of the measure on sports sponsorship, advertising, and sector revenues.
The state in which the process was left gives time for this strategy. The President of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre, moved the deadline for amendments, of which 48 have already been counted, to October 13, and the commission that has to debate the text would not be constituted before November, while the prohibition remains fully in force.
Congressman Bebeto was one of the quickest. On Monday, October 5, with the elections just passed, he presented four amendments to defend that bookmakers continue to operate, with the idea that the prohibition should only apply to the illegal market, that is, platforms that do not have authorization from the Ministry of Finance. There, the real risks for the consumer, sports integrity, and public revenue are concentrated, argued the legislator, who also stated that international experience and Brazil's own recent trajectory show that a generalized prohibition does not eliminate the demand for betting.
The industry, however, does not share the enthusiasm for this intermediate solution. Companies argue that enabling only sports betting would not be enough to preserve either sponsorships or tax collection, because online casino would represent about 70 percent of what companies earn. During 2025, the sector generated almost BRL 9 billion in taxes, about USD 1.8 billion.
That 70 percent is the number that breaks the political agreement before it is signed. The distribution towards which everyone converges,sports betting yes, casino no,would restore the sector's most visible face but remove the part where the money is, leaving companies with the obligation to sustain sponsorships and tax burden using the smaller margin. In other words, the sports sponsorship that clubs want to recover is paid for by the casino that the same proposal leaves prohibited, and therein lies the contradiction that the November negotiation will have to resolve. The other sign of the moment is calendrical, because a bloc that decides to wait for the runoff to negotiate is admitting that the content of the norm depends less on parliamentary debate than on the result of October 25.
Tags: Centrão, Provisional Measure 1.394, online casino in Brazil, Brazilian Football Confederation