Lula's campaign concludes that the ban cost him votes
In Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's re-election campaign, the idea is already circulating that the closure of betting proved costly in the first round. Members of the team believe that the measure, announced nine days before the election, may have harmed the president's performance in the dispute for the Palácio do Planalto, as reported by O Globo and later disseminated by BNLData.
The result supports this interpretation. Flávio Bolsonaro finished Sunday ahead of the president with 47.03 percent of the valid votes against Lula's 45.16 percent, a difference of 1.87 points. The social media monitoring conducted by the team also detected popular influencers, identified with class C, calling for a strategic vote for the PL senator as a direct reaction to the market closure.
The decision had divided the presidential circle. According to BNLData, the only ones advocating for a total closure were First Lady Janja da Silva and the Minister of the Secretariat of Social Communication, Sidônio Palmeira. Palmeira argued that a decisive impact was needed in the final stretch; Janja calculated that the female electorate would broadly support her. The rest of the team viewed it as radical and risky, due to the predictable reaction from affected sectors, with football clubs and bookmakers among the first. Lula nevertheless signed Provisional Measure No. 1.394/2026 on September 25.
The number that explains the political failure is in the polls. A survey by Indexa/Broadcast released on October 1 found that 70 percent of respondents approved the ban, but also that for 63 percent, what candidates said about betting did not weigh on their choice. The measure was popular yet indifferent when it came to voting, so the government garnered approval without converting it into support, while the opposition mobilized an intense minority who did change their vote for that reason.
The industry had warned about the other cost. Sector entities pointed out that the ban could push millions of bettors towards platforms that have no permission in the country, after the market had undergone a complete process of regulation and licensing.
That the diagnosis comes from the campaign command itself changes the discussion landscape. Until now, the political cost of the measure was a hypothesis of the opposition and the affected sector; now it is an internal conclusion, and that weakens any defense of the veto in the second round on October 25. This assessment also comes at a time when the survival of the norm depends on two instances that the Government does not control: the National Congress, which already has accumulated amendments to exempt sports betting, and the Supreme Federal Court, which is studying the requests for suspension presented by sector associations.
Tags: Brazil betting ban, Flávio Bolsonaro, Indexa Broadcast, Lula's campaign