Bill in Deputies seeks to regulate prediction markets
Brazil is beginning to seriously discuss how to regulate a phenomenon that has been growing rapidly worldwide: prediction markets. Federal Deputy Márcio Marinho this week presented Bill 2,651/2026 in the Chamber of Deputies, an initiative aimed at creating a specific regulatory framework for platforms offering contracts based on future events, a segment where companies like Polymarket and Kalshi operate and which until now has moved in a gray area within the country. The proposal comes at a time when the regional debate on these platforms is red-hot, after the European Commission opened a public consultation to define their treatment and the Brazilian Central Bank advanced with Resolution 5,298 on financial operations linked to these markets.
Marinho's initiative starts from a clear principle: platforms wishing to operate in Brazil must have authorization from the Union and maintain a headquarters or legal representation in Brazilian territory. This condition is not minor, because today a large part of the Brazilian flow to these markets is channeled through offshore structures that escape fiscal and prudential control. Added to this requirement is the obligation to implement strict fraud prevention and anti-money laundering mechanisms, in line with the rules already in force for sportsbooks licensed by the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting.
Shared supervision among three regulators
The project proposes a control scheme that is distributed according to the economic nature of each contract. When operations have an entertainment purpose, the platforms would fall under the purview of the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting of the Ministry of Finance, framed within the fixed-odds modality. In contrast, if the contracts present characteristics linked to investments or financial hedging instruments, supervision would pass to the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Central Bank would complete the regulatory triangle, with functions of monitoring financial flows and compliance with anti-money laundering rules.
The text recalls that, in its current configuration, Brazilian legislation only allows binary prediction contracts tied to economic and financial indicators such as inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, commodities, and shares traded on authorized markets. Marinho's proposal expands this universe, but with a defined perimeter of prohibitions. Contracts linked to the death of individuals, military operations, or government decisions that have not yet been officially published will not be allowed, a red line aimed at avoiding political and speculative uses of sensitive information.
Consumer protection with biometrics and card blocking
The strongest block of the initiative is dedicated to consumer protection. The project prohibits access for minors under 18 and requires identity verification systems through biometrics or integration with official databases. It also bans advertising aimed at children and adolescents and the use of influencers or celebrities with reach to minors, a debate that has been escalating in Brazil since online gambling became a massive cultural phenomenon. To curb over-indebtedness, it prevents the use of credit cards or financial advances for contributions and obliges platforms to offer tools for expense control, deposit limits, and temporary self-exclusion mechanisms.
The discussion about prediction markets is of close interest to all of Latin America. Brazil has been setting the regulatory agenda for the region in online gaming and related markets, and any definition regarding Polymarket, Kalshi, and similar platforms ends up influencing debates in Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, and Chile. Bill 2,651/2026 does not yet have a date for consideration in the committees of the Chamber of Deputies, but its arrival in the chamber makes it clear that the Brazilian Congress does not intend to be left out of a discussion that is already part of the global digital gaming agenda.
Tags: Brazil, LatAm prediction markets, Brazil regulation, Polymarket, Kalshi, Brazil SPA